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NJHokie74

Joined: 08/23/2007 Posts: 403
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This weekend decides the Commonwealth Clash


We need to finish ahead of UVa in either the Men's or Women's Outdoor Track & Field Championships this weekend to win the Clash. A tie will be no good since UVa would win the tiebreaker (number of total championships won; UVa has Men's Basketball and Women's Swimming while we only have Wrestling). I looked at a site which lists the best performances for the season and scored the meets if everything holds true to form. Following is a summary:

Men - what looked like an easy win for VT at the start of the season is now anything but. UVa has a stronger freshman class, two of our top guys are out of eligibility (they were eligible for Indoor Track but have already competed 4 seasons of Outdoor Track) and we have some athletes who are not performing at last year's levels. Based upon the performance list, the top 5 teams would be FSU-125, Syracuse-96, UVa-81, Louisville-74, VT-72. The projected gap between us and FSU is too big to close. There will be no championship this year. Some keys for us to beat Virginia:
1) Michael Davenport needs to regain his form in the sprints. Last year he scored 12 points; this year the projection is zero. You typically don't see a dramatic improvement from week to week in the sprints. His performance is magnified since he also runs in both relays.
2) We need Seufer to score well in the 5,000 and 10,000. Last year he scored 15 points; this year's projection is 4 points. These races are often run strategically so the times to date are often not good indicators. Except for Justyn Knight of Syracuse, Seufer has the potential to beat everyone else in both races. We also have the potential to pick up additional points in these races and in the 3000 Steeplechase.
3) We are projected to go 2-3-4-7 in the pole vault for 21 points but either of our top 2 guys (Laidig and Volz) has a shot to win this and we could score an extra 2-4 points.
4) We got a good transfer in Limehouse (110 HH) but he is off his times from last year. A good performance from him could net up to 5 additional points.
5) We have easily the best javelin thrower in the conference. He won in 2016 but did not compete last year and has not competed in an actual meet this year. I have no idea what his status is but if he competes he would add 10 points to our total.
6) There is a good chance to score more than the projected 4 points in the 1500.
7) I just don't see the UVa freshman winning the 400 as projected. If, for example, he finishes third, it would be a loss of 4 points for them.
7) On the negative side, the top triple jumper for UVa hasn't competed in that event this year but has done well in the long jump. If he competes in the triple jump it could add 10 points to their score. We are also looking at scoring 5 points in the 4 x 100 relay but that number could easily drop if the race isn't run cleanly.

Women-we are looking better here. The top 5 would be Miami-122, FSU-113, VT-83, Duke-66, UVa and UNC-63. Again, the gap between us and the top teams is too big. The main thing here is to outscore the Cavaliers. Some keys:
1) The pole vault is big. We are expected to go 1-4 with UVa taking a second. A good day by the freshman Baxter could propel us to a 1-2 finish and a 5 point swing in our favor. Our other freshman, Gunnarsson, should win the event.
2) We have won of the top performers in the 800 and 1500 in Pocratsky. She is projected to score 18 points but it is difficult to run both races since they are only 80 minutes apart.
3) We have a chance to steal some points in the 5,000 and 10,000 even though our projected total is zero.
4) We are projected to go 2-4 in the hammer throw but we could go slightly better than the projected 13 points. Our top thrower, Thor(really!) is only 6" behind the top mark of 213'-3". This event along with the pole vault is on Thursday (also 10,000 and high jump). We are projected to score 28 points in the two events. If we fall significantly short we are in trouble. We should be carrying a 20 point margin over UVa after this first day.
5) UVa is projected to go 1-3 in the triple jump and we are projected to go 2-4. This is a big chance to pick up some points. This is UVa's biggest event by far with 16 projected points which is double any other event.

I have faith in the VT coaching staff and expect to win both but it could be a nerve-wracking weekend. Go Hokies!

Posted: 05/08/2018 at 4:55PM



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This weekend decides the Commonwealth Clash -- NJHokie74 05/08/2018 4:55PM
  A tie in either meet will do the trick -- farmville hokie 05/09/2018 08:41AM

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