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SteveInBaltimore

Joined: 10/07/1999 Posts: 26709
Likes: 5620


To me the issue has always been TIME


The universe is billions of years old.

How long does an advanced civilization last? I think a lot of people make the assumption that civilizations constantly advance and that they figure out interstellar travel, so how come we haven't seen any evidence?

But what if interstellar travel is truly impossible. Heck, we aren't sure if humans can survive the radiation from a trip to Mars yet. And what if advanced civilizations only last a few hundred years before something goes wrong. We've only had radio for a little over 100 years. Honestly I'd be surprised if we are still an advanced civilization 1000 years from now. We'll destroy the planet or ourselves in warfare or the Yellowstone volcano or an asteroid will do it for us. So if an advanced civilization only lasts for, say 1000 years on average, and the universe is several billion years old, and real interstellar travel is impossible... then civilizations could have popped up for 1000 years in neighboring stars dozens of times before ours popped up, and gone away. And ours will go away before another one pops up. So searching for radio evidence is a crapshoot with really small odds. And yes, the universe is enormous but you can pretty much ignore all the other billions of galaxies because even if life exists, has existed, or will exist there, the chances of our discovering evidence of it are remote.

Narrow it down to a few million stars that are within a few thousand light years of us. Assume that advance civilization (possessing radio) only lasts for a thousand years or so when it does pop up, factor in the age of the galaxy... and there's a darn good chance there could be or have been a million different civilizations around those few million stars over the past couple billion years, but none of them happened to have their brief thousand year lifespan coinciding with ours so that receipt of their communication is even possible.

(In response to this post by Hokie CPA)

Posted: 06/07/2018 at 1:23PM



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Current Thread:
  Link 2 PM -- TechMomof2 06/07/2018 1:51PM
  I heard through the grapevine they found this. -- Spud 06/07/2018 12:24PM
  Where's EVA ** -- psychobilly 06/07/2018 1:06PM
  OMG! ** -- FfxStationHokie 06/07/2018 12:38PM
  OMG, Alien relics would make peoples heads explode. ** -- HokieSignGuy 06/07/2018 12:09PM
  If scientists have found microbial life on Mars -- VTHokie2000 06/07/2018 12:23PM
  I do agree that Earth is a special place -- VTHokie2000 06/07/2018 12:47PM
  We have a bit longer than that. -- Hokie CPA 06/07/2018 12:53PM
  Yup, it is truly mind-boggling. Good discussion. ** -- HokieSignGuy 06/07/2018 2:29PM
  To me the issue has always been TIME -- SteveInBaltimore 06/07/2018 1:23PM

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