You've got me all beat on the math; I was always just a 'C' student. To me 'optimistic' equals better than 50-50 chance; whereas 'hopeful' to me means "we've got a chance". In any event I hope really hope KJB finds reasons to stay with the good guys. CMY said academics is a big issue with KJB; I can't think of an area where UT is as good much less better than VT in the academic arena, so maybe that's a good sign.