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jmanatVT

Joined: 01/17/2008 Posts: 6583
Likes: 1850


I think you get that curve ultimately, but you can artificially create


a plateau. What I mean is if the natural asymptote is at 70%, but for 6 months 50% of your population isn't exposed (they stay home), you'd get that curve with an asymptote at 35% (.7 * .5). However, when that 50% comes out of hiding, you'd see a new curve that approaches the 70%.

I think that's what we are seeing in Maryland (except where the numbers are completely made up).

I like his videos too. I think he sometimes gets a little wrapped up in what many would consider pedanticism (exponential vs logistic, but you've heard this from me before).
[Post edited by jmanatVT at 07/27/2020 4:10PM]

(In response to this post by HokieHutch)

Posted: 07/27/2020 at 4:08PM



+1

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