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Conference Realignment Board

M-I-C

Joined: 08/13/2018 Posts: 275
Likes: 149


For Mr. Fantastic and those that asked on August 11 here is what I said:


Back on August 13, I was asked by Mr. Fantastic where I thought everything was headed with the Big-12. I gave a long reply that I have attached her as well as the link to the thread starting with Mr. Fantastic OP. I was not 100% I got UCF and Memphis reversed. Not bad at a time when everyone was saying the Big-12 was dead and conferences were raiding left and right. It was mentioned further down in the thread that it should be pinned to see how much of my reply was pure fiction. Now you know.

https://virginiatech.sportswar.com/mid/15767792/board/vtrealignment/

Warning this is a long reply but you asked some long open ended questions..

I suppose the best way to start answering your questions is with some assumptions on my part to frame what I think of the issue in the broader scheme of things as I understand them at this time.

The first assumption is that the college tv media world has shifted. Markets used to matter, population centers were gold and geography was a critical component. Not anymore. There is one market, the digital market and everyone every where can reach that market by clicking onto whatever streaming service they utilize. Now, geography does not matter except for shuffling the actual sports team arounds, most fans no longer travel except to a few close games after things get 500 miles away or more. A major urban center is no guarantee of market dominance, see Boston and Boston College. Heck, WVU owns the Pittsburgh market, not Pittsburgh.

One:
I do not believe Mega Conferences are coming for anyone. Super Conferences with 16-member sis the new normal and I do expect every conference to eventually find itself with that many members as the clarity of exactly what the New Play Off structure becomes. We assume at this time that is a CFP-12 format with details yet to be determined, but I presume it will try to please both parties and have auto-bids for the Access Conferences and at large bids based on some ranking criteria.

Two:
As a result of one, the SEC has completed their acquisition process. They have yet to make it formal on their new pairing of divisions but that is rather obvious, Missouri moves to the west to join newcomers, Texas and Oklahoma and Alabama and Auburn move east. Every single matchup of any note is preserved save a few with LSU, but that can be over overcome.

Three:
The Big Ten sitting at 14 still needs to add 2 more to complete their ensemble, just as the ACC does. Neither conference seems to be ready to make any such move and all of the potential candidates have been out there for many years. This would imply that those left to chose from among lack at least enough appeal to make the effort worth the process or that conditions have not arisen to force the task to hand.
I think the issue for both of these conferences is the same one: Where does Notre Dame land? Notre Dame is contracted to land in the ACC but that deal is nebulous at best and I do not think any one really places in any real faith in it. When, not if, is forced to join a conference they will join the conference that pays them the most. Both the Big Ten and the SEC draw in enormous sums and if the SEC has completed its expansion process, that only leaves the Big Ten as the future home of Notre Dame. I think all parties involves understand this even if they find it less than appealing.
This brings the Big-Ten to 15 and they still need a 16. The daring move would be to lure in the University of Southern California. This would go along way to placating Notre Dame in the process. Alternatively, the Big-Ten could dive into the Big-12 and run off with Iowa State or Kansas. USC makes far more sense in this much effort since they have a tie-in to Notre Dame and neither Kansas nor Iowa State do.
Until Notre Dame is forced to sit down, USC is safe and that probably means for the next 5 to 10 years. So, the Big-Ten will stand pat at 14 and wait.

Four:

The ACC. As soon as Notre Dame is out of the picture, the ACC should quickly move to secure 15 and 16. The problem for the ACC is that they have everyone they really want. But I also believe there is no option but to go to 16 for the ACC, so who?

Some obvious choices exist: Army, Cincinnati, Connecticut, ECU, Navy, WVU, UCF, USF, just to keep it relatively within the current ACC geographical footprint. There are others but they are too far off the ACC border to be really considered. Other conference might feel ok going 2,500 miles for a member but the ACC is not one of them.

Army and Navy bring their most worth if Notre Dame is hanging about and if they move off to the Big-Ten, their allure is diminished.

Connecticut and ECU have STDs or something as far as the ACC seems to be concerned and both are dead before you can finish saying their name. This leaves WVU, UCF and USF. WVU brings three important qualities to the ACC, a large, active fanbase, name brand recognition, historic rivalries with existing ACC members. But, does grabbing the state of West Virginia really do much for the ACC? Travel in and out of Morgantown is better but not really good. Academically – and the ACC thinks that way just as much as the Big-Ten does – WVU has warts. Granted Louisville has them too, but from the ACC perspective, they are ‘way over there’ and we have not spent 100 years hating them.
Of course, WVU earns that academic rating because of the State of West Virginia Promise Scholarship Program. This program guarantees every graduating high school senior with a 2.0 GPA or better an auto-enrollment into WVU. This program was instituted to help educate the many in West Virginia that fall through the primary and secondary education system, providing them with one last for some sort of reasonable future. The vast majority of these students go one semester to WVU and drop out – shredding that vital rating of the Academic Standing Adjudication. Other schools that hold a similar rating such as Louisville do not face this hurdle and come by their ranking through other means.
UCF and USF coming into the ACC is an elegant solution. It would tie up what is left of Florida for the ACC and provide access to more markets but are either really needed? Perhaps more importantly, the ACC is a slow mover in these things. Outside of the Miami-centered raid on the Big East in 2003, the ACC has been slow on the draw to add members, and I see no reason that will change. So, that being assumed, will UCF and USF still be there when the ACC gets around to the effort? I don’t think so. Likewise, I think WVU will be locked up by then, this leaves only Army and Navy as valid options even if only just.

In many ways Army and Navy are good picks for the ACC. The ACC really does not anyone else and there are no two schools inside the footprint that can come in and make ZERO fuss. They bring in a nice rivalry with each other, they are stable, well-run, academically superior, well-respected and not too shabby ins the sports that matter most years. I have suggested that they make the most sense out of all potentials even if they do not light up the sky with fireworks. It is precisely for that reason that I think they work, no one in the ACC can object to them and any failings they might have can be forgiven because they are service academies. Incidentally, Notre Dame will still be coming to town to play Navy each year and often Army when they can.

But, if the Big-Ten is in a holding pattern over Notre Dame than so is the ACC, unless the ACC decides the situation is just too unstable and they need to settle the question. Notre Dame could be removed from their requirement to play 5 ACC schools each in football and merely let them participate in Olympic sports. Bring in Army and Navy. Notre Dame is still going to be drawn to playing Boston College, Pittsburgh, Army and Navy, so even without the requirement they are likely to be playing at least four games in a given year. If they wanted to add a few more, no one would complain but they would not be required to do so.

I know this is long but you asked a lot of questions and to be fair, most of what you asked NO ONE can answer. Even those that will eventually answer these questions do not know what they think abut it yet. This is a slow, long process not the adrenalin-filled flurry of phone calls and texts that most seem to think it is.

But we are down to the Big-12 because I am leaving your questions about WVU for last.

All that has happened to the Big-12 is that Texas and Oklahoma have given official notification of their exit on July 1, 2025. Almost immediately, they both entered into negotiations to purse the Exit Fee abbreviated timeline departure. The contract states that a member following this path must pay an exit fee equivalent to two years of media tv payout, which stands at 40.9 million for the most recent period. Two years at the value is $81.8 million dollars each and there would still be a window of 18 months from the moment the deal is struck – it hasn’t been yet so that exit date rolls forward one day, every day and is currently sitting on, February 13 2023. Each day that it takes to reach an accord that date advances one day.
Unless…Texas and Oklahoma chose to pay an even higher fee to exit, call it a premium if you like. It is widely assumed that Texas and Oklahoma will be gone by July 1 2022. This indicates that they will pay a lot more than 81.8 million dollars to leave. Some have reported as much as 200 million each but I serious doubt such an amount is ever entertained. The Big-12 has ESPN in a bind here because all of this has been orchestrated by ESPN at so many levels, in fact every level. This is good news for the Big-12, ESPN has been caught up to no good and is going to have to do some horse trading to get out of this mess they made.

By the way, this all unfolded a year early. Texas A&M found out about it and leaked it every where because the SEC basically bent them over and gave them business by bringing in Texas. So, someone in College Station shot the cat out of the bag and let the mess unfold on the tv screen and internet. To say people at Texas A&M are mad is an understatement.

The current Big-12 media package has a value of 40.9 million per annum per member that grows a few million each until the final year. One of the first thing Bowlsby did was to ascertain the effect on that contract with Texas and Oklahoma absent. ESPN responded quickly, as though they had a reason to know those numbers in advance. The per annum pay out would drop 14 million per member. So, instead of 40.9 million plus whatever annual bump there is, each remaining Big-12 schools will receive 26.9 million plus whatever annual bump there is. Granted this will not happen until the year after Texas and Oklahoma leave, until then the full pay out amount is still in force and will remain so until they do leave; it is July 1, 2025 or the Big-12 dissolves.

So, let’s discuss dissolution of the Big-12. The conference bylaws say that the Big-12 exists down to 3 members. This is why the rumor of ESPN trying to wiggle 5 members of the remaining 8 into the AAC without any authority to do so and thus causing Bowlsby to issue a Cease and Desist to ESPN. If any of the Big-12 remaining schools wish to leave, they would be forced through the same hoops that Texas and Oklahoma are now jumping – a lot of lawyering, money and time. None of them have any of those resources and no other conference is going to come riding and BUY them from the Big-12.

This means that each of the remaining Big-12 members are there until July 1, 2025 at least. But it is worth their while to stay. The ESPN media contract is reduced as I noted above but ESPN cannot cancel that contract, only modify it within the contract terms, by alterations in the membership or the addition of a CCG which is already inked although not active at this time. Ion the next four years, each of the remaining 8 members will receive:
2021/2022 payout of 40.9 million plus
2022/2023 payout of 26.9 million plus
2023/2024 payout of 26.9 million plus
2024/2025 payout of 26.9 million plus
For a total of 121.6 million plus whatever annual bump is built into the system. I assume it will be something on the order of 130 million for staying in the Big-12 through July 1, 2025 for each member.

If we assume that Texas and Oklahoma are gone after one year, the 2022 football season will see the Big-12 fall to 8 members. That is an unstable outcome and something has to be done to bolster the mood.

Expansion is just long and pricey to bring in members as it is for a member to leave because almost every institution is already tied to another conference and thus media rights deal. With one exception:

BYU. BYU has issues that will always keep it out of the Pac-12, the Pac-12 will not even go near a religious school as a member. Ever. No matter how much lip service they pay to the idea, it is DOA.

BYU is an independent, like Notre Dame. But unlike Notre Dame it cannot survive in this coming CFP-12 world. The Play off structure will make sure Notre Dame has a path in but they do not care if BYU ever gets in or not. If BYU wants to play at that level it must belong to a conference. The Pac-12 will not have them. The Big-Ten says they aren’t qualified because they lack an AAU certification. The SEC has everyone they want and the ACC is far too far away. Their only hope is a reconstituted Big-12 and BYU would be the first step to reconstituting the Big-12.

BYU already has a 10 million media rights deal with ESPN. Because ESPN has been caught in this up to their eyeballs – they are after all the rights holder for the Big-12, LHN and the SEC as well as the AAC and all of the moving and shaking has happened under their guidance, this is a black eye for them if this stuff starts to unravel in a court room.

BYU can enter into rather straightforward negotiations with the Big-12 for starting play on July 1 2022, the same date we assume Texas and Oklahoma leave. If for some reason Texas and Oklahoma do not leave by then, there is nothing either can do to stop this, modify or offer an opinion on. Their voices have been made moot and they can sit and take what comes or pay up and walk away. Their pride will see them paying and paying a lot, I assume three times the media deal at roughly 120 million each.

The current ESPN contract says any new member is values at the same level as the per annum per member payout. IN this case that would be 40.9 million for BYU but it would probably be tabbed at the lower 26.9 million payout. Which for ESPN is really only an increase of 18.9 since they already pay BYU 10 million. A bargain.

Sometime hereafter the exit fee from Texas and Oklahoma will hit the bank accounts either in in full or in some structure payout plan. Assume half up front – 60 million - and two following quarter payments in 2023 – 30 million - and 2024 – another 30 million. Each.

The estimated 120 million that the Big-12 would pick up in 2023 could be split among the remaining 8 schools or only partially split among them with some of it used to bring in 3 new teams,

Unlike how the ACC raided the Big East in 2003 which was as heavy handed, clumsy and stupid as a raid can be, the Big-12 should approach the Commissioner of the ACC and ask to speak with its members for expansion possibilities. Because I think 16 is the new 12, the Big-12 is going to want to move to 16 as soon as it can. But doing that would rip the AAC to pieces and there is another way to do this.

The Big-12 can go through the process with all of the AAC members just to be fair, but really, they are or should focus only on Cincinnati, Houston and Memphis. It is imperative the Big-12 get the CCG up and running under the current ESPN contract because it is already agreed to in the contract how it is paid out and supported. The extra money from that CCG will go along way to making that 14-million-dollar loss each remaining member has absorbed when Texas and Oklahoma left.

The AAC members are also tied to an ESPN media rights deal…no matter where you look ESPN is in it all up to their eyeballs. Currently their per annum per member payout is roughly 8 million. They have a similar exit structure that the Big-12 does, X number of months, twice the media rights deal etc.

So, the Big-12 with roughly 120 million in its pocket from the 60 million each from Texas and Oklahoma in the first-year exit fee payment ash money to spend. The Big-12 pays those exit fees of 8 + 8 or 16 million per invitee. A total of 48 million. This would mean no court room dances to chip away or in any way attempt to reduce the buyout, this is all about making this look professional and honest for the Big-12 and treating the AAC well enough it can turn around and use that money to sooth these losses and bring up schools from CUSA or some other conference as replacements.

Of course, this is just round one of inviting AAC members. The AAC has 11 full members and three have just been invited to the Big-12 leaving 8 behind to split the 48 million dollars in whole or part. Assume the AAC does what the BIG-12 has done and sets aside some of that for bring in replacement members and each of the remaining 8 schools’ pocket 3 million of their potential 6 million payout. That payout is roughly half what they make in the tv media rights deal each year, so for them that is a lot of money.

So, by July 1 2023, the Big-12 has 12 members:
Baylor
Brigham Young
Cincinnati
Houston
Kansas
Kansas State
Iowa State
Memphis
Oklahoma State
Texas Christian
Texas Tech
West Virginia

On top of this they will host an inaugural Football Championship game.

The Big-12 could call it a day, but unless they go for 16 and do it now, they will regret it. When they were interviewing the AAC members it should he been made clear that there would be a round two in the process. By doing it in two stages the transition process is less complicated for both the Big-12 and the AAC and presumably for a conference like CUSA which might actually be forced to fold with some money its pocket when it is all over.

So, back to the process and the second round includes, SMU, UCF and USF from the AAC for 16 million each and a total of 48 more million in pay out by the Big-12 and then Boise State from the MWC for probably a sum closer to 10 million.

These four would start play on July 1 2024 and would complete their first year on the last year of the old ESPN media rights deal.

This is where all of that evidence of ESPN dirty efforts is going to pay off. Bowlsby has a choice, he can try to pursue a follow on tv media rights deal with ESPN and go easy in the proceedings as ESPN inks the new deal to let Texas and Oklahoma walk. Or, Bowlsby can play hard ball, assuming he can fry his fish at Fox Sports or another streamer such Amazon Prime or Netflix that wants to dive into the market. Whatever he does he has to secure a new media rights deal.

Will it be like what the Big-12 had in the past? Doubtful, but it will be a lot more than the 8 million per annum per member the AAC was getting or even the 10 million per annum BYU was hauling in. I assume it will be no less than 20 million per member per annum for each of the 16 members plus probably that same amount for the CCG as a payout. This would provide the Big-12 – now possibly re-branded as the Big-16 with 340 million per annum tv deal this is almost exactly what the old Big-12 deal waws for 10 schools but now there are 16 and a CCG.

So, what does ESPN actually save and why would they do this?

The Big-12 remaining 8 members has already been told something around 25 million is the new norm for the their per member per annum payout. So that is 200 million.

BYU was hauling in 10 million per annum

Boise State was getting by on 7 million per annum and the other six AAC schools were getting by on 8 million per annum per member. All of this money was paid by ESPN.

For a total of 200 + 10 + 7 + 48 = 265 million. The new figure of 340 million includes a CCG and a difference of 75 million dollars a year to make all of this go away. Better yet for ESPN< they are not still paying for these schools in the old conferences which will surely have reduced payouts. In the end the Big-12 ( Big-16 ? ) will survive and ESPN will not be spending much more than it is now and still get the Super SEC with Texas and Oklahoma as well full control over the CFP-12.

It would be a messy process that no one intended but it could work out this way. Of Course, I am speculating all of the place, but I do not think I have strayed beyond practicality or reality at any turn.

Now for WVU being in the ACC and how I feel about that. The ACC would be invited to move into the ACC not because the ACC wants them – they don’t - but because they need them. This is like inviting those relatives you really hate to come stay at your house over the holidays. You hate them even more for it and there is a constant stream of Jerry Springer content during the visit. But in this setup, they are leaving – it is a visit after all. IN the WVU/ACC case, those nasty knuckle dragging mouth breathing incestuous, toothless hillbillies are moving in!!!!!

WVU has drastically changed and those that go to the game in September will see it. I am sure if they look hard enough, they will still find a handful of moonshine-fueled jackasses ready to throw down, but only if they go looking for it. Even then, there are cops EVERYWHERE. IF something happens it should be readily provable with a police report. Such things never seem to get that far even though some Hokies swear their kids were raped and their car was torched. Of course, such reports will be made just after the game concludes by people who watched it from their sofa or recliner.

WVU In the ACC after a few years would earn a better reputation with the fan base, but it is Greensboro that would never forget who WVU has been and what they are now is not nor ever will be acknowledged. Schedules will be created in every sport that put WVU in a bind if it is possible just because it makes some hateful underling giggle in their cubical. WVU has worked very, very hard to be better than what we were in 2003 and the Big-12 has never once treated us with anything but equity and respect – even Texas, go figure! But I do not think the ACC would do that in my life and WVU deserves better than that.

I know this was long and bizarre but you asked in a few line questions that took 9 pages in word to pump out of my head. I hope you appreciate the effort. I typed this all out twice last night and the system ate it both times.

(In response to this post by MrFantastic!)

Posted: 08/13/2021 at 3:35PM

(In response to this post by tarheelblue)

Posted: 10/02/2021 at 05:35AM



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Current Thread:
  Interesting on how the conferences group together -- mrcaniac 10/02/2021 11:15PM
  Absolutely fascinating... -- fnhokie 10/02/2021 5:41PM
  Thanks for the link -- 2hhoop3 10/02/2021 11:48AM
  Absolute incredible presentation. ** -- MrFantastic! 10/02/2021 09:21AM
  That will not happen ** -- MrFantastic! 10/07/2021 03:31AM
  Congratulations..... -- 2hhoop3 10/02/2021 11:26AM
  Thanks for the post -- MrFantastic! 10/02/2021 08:40AM
  Presenter should have cited this board as a reference ** -- VT ChemE 1986 10/02/2021 10:30AM
  Very well done presentation. -- goldendomer 10/02/2021 02:30AM
  I liked at nears end VT in playoff Division of ACC. ** -- MrFantastic! 10/02/2021 09:22AM
  One other takeaway...... -- 2hhoop3 10/02/2021 11:45AM
  Numbers are for 18-19 academic year -- mrcaniac 10/02/2021 10:24PM
  Makes the last few rounds of expansion make sense -- mrcaniac 10/03/2021 10:41PM
  When Maryland decided to move to the B1G.... -- Old Line Hokie 10/02/2021 4:26PM
  UConn probably thought building a new off-campus -- Old Line Hokie 10/02/2021 4:33PM
  UConn's Storrs' campus has over 4,000 acres. -- Old Line Hokie 10/02/2021 11:18PM
  I don't think space is an issue. It's $$$$. -- Old Line Hokie 10/03/2021 12:23PM

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