The Big-12 has no need to negotiate. The exit from the conference is a contract. It could be challenged in court, but has been voted into power every time bylaws have changed, good luck with that. The premium fee is at the whim of Bowlsby and he was dragged through the mud when this started, by both Texas and Oklahoma and to a lesser extent the SEC and ESPN and of course the Sports media and various fan bases. The grant of media rights? Even tougher nut to crack, guess who has the most to lose in breaking that one? ESPN. ESPN holds those with each conference as the counter-party and ESPN plans on the stipulations in those contracts for contract over a given duration. ESPN is going to side with the Big-12 to keep that from being broken.

This all comes down to a massive pile of money that both Texas and Oklahoma are going to have to fork over and the Big-12 does not have to negotiate on any of it. No matter when Texas and Oklahoma leave, they have to pay the exit fee of two year's value of the last media payout. If they want to leave faster than the 18? 27? month window, premium costs apply. If it is at the start of the new media contract in 2025, than they will owe for that entire time span.

This was not supposed to go down this way. Texas A&M spilled the beans on this mess. The SEC and ESPN along with Oklahoma and Texas cooked this up. To happen after certain events ha already unfolded.

Oklahoma and Texas were on the preliminary media contract negotiations to take effect when the current contract ran through term on June 30, 2025. Oklahoma and not Texas as so many seem to believe started this chain of events. Oklahoma feeling like they were carrying the Big-12 water every year in the playoff, wanted more money. The Big-12 has a pretty tight and even distribution and ESPN said there would not be any special deals such as the botched LHN network for them. Worse, the new media deal was going to be a continuation of the present stipulations and not a major increase.

Oklahoma wanted more money and engaged ESPN in how to get more, simple move to the SEC. SEC enters conversation. One team is not enough to make this move worth the crap storm that will follow. Can you bring Texas? Texas gets tapped on the shoulders and those guys think it was all their idea after five minutes and Oklahoma decides to shut up and let them be the fall guy. Texas is so smart.

They both begin to work out the details with the SEC a year before the news breaks. Eventually A&M gets wind of it and drops the bomb. Caught, Texas and Oklahoma put out the story that the new TV deal was not going to be continued by ESPN and that is why they were leaving. It is a lie and ESPN does not correct the error. Worse, ESPN realizes just how much money is at stake if the Big-12 does not fold now. So, it begins to talk to the AAC's commissioner Mike Aresco, who used to be a lawyer for ESPN and worked with CBS at the SEC - perfectly little stooge. Bowlsby gets wind and we get Cease and Desist and everything goes quite.

The SEC had planned to have the new CFP set up down with rules that would allow for several teams in from a given conference all the time knowing that Texas and Oklahoma were coming secretly on the way in.

You are correct, this is personal in the Big-12 and the Big-12 holds the power to make everyone involved pay. ESPN has already been in negotiations with the Big-12 and the next deal is probably going to be what was originally offered - a continuation. When the current contract terms in 2025, each member before cuts will rake in about 45 million and after about 40 million. In the new contract it should pick up right that for each of the 12 members. However, the scuttle is if that Big-12 goes to 16 that number would drop a few million for each team. Either way. It will be well ahead of what the ACC gets since it is locked in until 2036 and has no access to Tier 3 rights in the way the Big-12 does. Some schools in the Big-12 make almost 20 million from Tier 3.

The Pac-12 new deal is expected to be pretty much in line with this pay out as well, but Kliavkoff seems to have some illusion that the PACN is worth something. It isn't. It made 113 million last and operating costs of 90 million, leaving 23 million to be split 12 ways. ESPN is likely to end up with that rolled into a new deal the same way the ACCN is set up. But, the Pac-12 will probably be making about 40 million each before overhead. Athletic conference money is not all that big of a deal to the Pac-12 members, they rake hundreds of millions in donations that more than off set a few million one way or the other for them in a tv package.