Glad you asked...
Im in the middle of doing research on them. They play their last game before VT tonight against Western Kentucky.
Some stark contrasts between the two programs.
Memphis plays the 8th fastest pace of anyone in college basketball at 81.3 possessions per game. Virginia Tech has averaged 68.2 possessions per game, 296th in the nation.
Virginia Tech is 29th in the nation with 10 turnovers per game. Memphis is double that at **TWENTY** turnovers per game (24 turnovers most recently against Saint Louis), which is 344th in the country (out of 358 total teams)
Taking 20 turnovers away from Memphis' possessions and 10 turnovers from VT leaves you with 61.3 possessions for Memphis and 58.2 possessions for VT where there is an outcome other than a turnover on the offensive end. Pretty even.
Its a lot easier to slow teams down than speed them up, and that isnt good for a team like Memphis where 1/4 of their possessions are a turnover.
VT is 40th in the country in offensive efficiency, Memphis is 61st.
VT gives up 8 offensive boards per game, 134th in the nation. Memphis gives up 14.3 offensive boards per game, 348th in the nation. VT grabs 7 o-reb per game, Memphis grabs 10.3 per game. So there shouldnt be too much of a deviation of the offensive efficiency due to offensive rebounds.
If VT slows Memphis down to a pace in the upper 60s, they should expect to score between 65-75 points. For Memphis, they would expect to score 60-70 points.
Memphis has shot 45.2% from 3, which could be the equalizer. Theyre going to get some clean looks from 3. If those fall, then the efficiencies could skew their way. If they're not falling, theyre going to struggle. VT will not crash the offensive glass as much as they have in their other games, instead opting to stop Memphis in transition. Dry up transition buckets and hold Memphis in the half court, theyll likely turn it over more possessions than possessions where they hit 3s.
If I had to take a guess Id say VT by 8-12 in a 72-64ish game.
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In response to this post by Bobbytrips)
Posted: 11/19/2021 at 3:16PM