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GCHokie34

Joined: 06/11/2002 Posts: 6861
Likes: 21114


Memphis...


Ive said for a long time they werent the OOC team that would be the most helpful to VTs resume, I still think that's St. Bonaventure.

Their talent will ensure they have a chance to win any single game. The problem lies in that it will be hard for their young team (even those with experience are new to playing at Memphis) to be consistently good throughout a season

Their turnover issue is a red flag that furthers the notion they will struggle with consistency.

So what does that mean for tonight?

Theyre going to get hot at some point. Whether they get hot and go up 15 or they get hot and go from down 12 to up 5, its going to happen. The challenge for Memphis will be sustained success against a set Virginia Tech defense designed to make Memphis take shots that arent in their comfort zone.

I think youll see back door doubles when the ball hits the post for Jalen Duren, looking to make him make quick decisions with the ball. Will he be able to find the right teammate to cause a rotation? Will they move the ball efficiently enough to get clean looks out of it? If they do, then it could be a rough time on that end.

VT will also be vulnerable on ball screen 3s. Its the only 3 they are especially susceptible to due to how they help on ball screens. Will Memphis have Nolley set ball screens as a 4? That could create some tough angles/recoveries for VT. If Nolley is at the 3 and sets ball screens, itll simply be a switch. I hope yo see lots of Nolley at the wing spots, thats great news for VT if so. The experimental minutes of Bates as a PG are also highly beneficial for VT...watch the +/- there.

On offense, I would look for the gameplan to be very similar to UNC in the ACC tournament last season. MY will isolate a guard and post to one side (likely whoever Duren is guarding) and make them play in space. Then he will put both Bates and Duren in as many new actions as possible (cross screens in the post with the ball in the high post/top of the key, slips on actions where they normally screen, etc.), making it incredibly difficult to rely on their scout. VT absolutely punished Walker Kessler and Dayron Sharpe with this method. They just couldnt get the offense going elsewhere, something that isnt an issue with this group.

Something tangible to watch:

Watch the total number of possessions. That can be difficult to do without the math in front of you, so watch the score. Its a good thing for VT if this game is played in the 60s-low 70s. So at halftime the game should be 35 and below. You can extrapolate to the TV timeouts from there.

If Memphis still turns the ball over at a 1/4 rate, then a ~64 possession game would see 15/16 turnovers. 7/8 by halftime. Youll be able to get a good indicator of that stat at the half.

Dont concentrate on makes/misses for VT offensively. Just look at whether the shot was open and where it was on the clock. The sweet spot for VT is around the 10 to 5 sec mark in the shot clock. Getting up shots too early means more possessions. Getting up shots too late means lowered percentages. If theyre open, and in the sweet spot, that bodes really well for VT, regardless of individual makes/misses.

Try to concentrate on the long term. It doesnt matter if VT wins by 20 or loses by 20, this game isnt making or breaking VTs tourney hopes. They simply need to keep getting better as the season goes along and then hope for good matchups in March. If VT is taking Memphis out of what they want to do and VT is getting the looks they want, then Ill happily live with a loss in the long term. Sometimes teams make shots when theyre well-contested and sometimes you miss shots when youre wide open. Neither are indicative of what your team will be like in 4 months.

Im sticking with my original prediction of VT by 8-12 and a score of 72-64

Posted: 11/24/2021 at 5:18PM



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Current Thread:
 
  
Memphis... -- GCHokie34 11/24/2021 5:18PM
  Let's Go! ** -- win-tech 11/24/2021 9:11PM
  Thanks. Love your input. Much appreciated** -- jfhokie 11/24/2021 8:57PM
  Yea thats all correct. ** -- vthokiedsp 11/24/2021 8:41PM
  Ditto. :-) ** -- Techaholic 11/24/2021 8:26PM
  Great watching tips! Thanks* ** -- A3genhokie 11/24/2021 7:47PM
  Nice work. Thanks ** -- Woody 11/24/2021 7:05PM
  Thanks again!!!! ** -- vtbball80 11/24/2021 6:44PM
  Great info! Thanks for taking the time to share ** -- 133630Hokie 11/24/2021 5:47PM
  Thanks GC! ** -- BEST2VT 11/24/2021 5:45PM
  TY Sir ** -- astrohokie 11/24/2021 5:39PM
  Thanks for taking the time to do that! ** -- HOKIE MAGIC 11/24/2021 5:38PM
  Thanks Coach for this analysis. ** -- IB4TECH 11/24/2021 5:31PM
  This a great analysis -- VT ChemE 1986 11/24/2021 5:26PM

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