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BG Hokie

Joined: 12/13/2005 Posts: 43473
Likes: 9089


Political polling statistical question, not political in nature. Poll


numbers go up and down in correlation with how well candidates are doing. Hillary had a bad few weeks and the race got tighter in the polls. Now let's say Trump had a bad debate, it stands to reason his numbers could go down a bit. For sake of this discussion, let's say that they will.

Is it then fair to conclude that swing voters are changing their mind? Sure, each poll, polls different people each and every time, not the same people. But, statistically speaking, aren't people changing their mind, is that not a correct conclusion?

Posted: 09/27/2016 at 10:13AM



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Current Thread:
  Bias towards a close race -- LaneRat 09/27/2016 1:56PM
  Only pole worth following (pic) -- RaleighHokie15 09/27/2016 11:50AM
  Off hand I'd say the Falcons had the best night. ** -- Major Kong 09/27/2016 11:41AM
  What do you expect to see on Facebook. ** -- HokieJamie 09/27/2016 12:19PM
  No, Americans can be just ignorant -- VaTechie 09/27/2016 11:45AM
  Nice humblebrag. -- CPRVHokie 09/27/2016 11:45AM
  The company is WeDoVTInfographicsOnCompanyTime -- statmanfromHCyrs 09/27/2016 12:02PM
  Not public :) ** -- OXVT 09/27/2016 11:54AM
  That's the problem with the primary system, IMHO -- Nova Hokie 95 09/27/2016 11:39AM
  That's still 20% unaccounted for....where are they? -- statmanfromHCyrs 09/27/2016 11:44AM
  Doh. 60% in the middle -- Nova Hokie 95 09/27/2016 11:59AM
  May want to check your math ** -- CPRVHokie 09/27/2016 11:43AM
  Grrrrrr. No thanks to TomTurkey and statman ** -- statmanfromHCyrs 09/27/2016 11:44AM
  Implied MVC? ** -- TomTurkey 09/27/2016 10:15PM
  Shun ** -- PUAhokie 09/27/2016 11:22AM
  I think you will see the Libetarian numbers go up -- VaTechie 09/27/2016 10:49AM
  We can only hope. ** -- Ricky LaBlue 09/27/2016 11:03AM
  Statistics can be manipulated- and usually are -- bigbadbird 09/27/2016 11:29AM
  Exactly. ** -- EDGEMAN 09/27/2016 12:04PM
  Polls are BS, especially this season. -- vt_mughal 09/27/2016 10:33AM
  ^^This. ** -- Hokie madman 09/27/2016 11:42AM
  Most likely about 10% of undecided voters that -- HortHokie 09/27/2016 10:18AM

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