...but I think people are underrating the possibility of an outright snub (which has to be at least 5%) and dramatically underrating the possibility that we might be in a play-in game if we lose tonight.

If you look at the bracket matrix website our seeds range from 7 to 11 (with two donkeys having us out entirely). More people have us 7/8/9 than 10/11 which is why our average is 8.52. But the point is there are several people who care enough about this to regularly update a credible bracket projection and submit it to this website who see us *right now* as out, last 4 in, or last 4 byes. If we lose tonight and if there are a couple of bid steals (I'm looking at you AAC and A-10) we will almost certainly be out of at least a few more brackets and in the last 4 of a bunch more.

All that just to say...I like our consensus position. It's better than it was in 2010 or 2011. But it's not hard to imagine a scenario where the committee comes down on the bad part of how that consensus is distributed. If 1 person thinks we don't belong in and they have a 50/50 chance of convincing the rest of the committee, then we're not a stone cold lock. And certainly not anywhere near a lock to be above the play-in games.