When making predictions on next season, we don't have much else to go on then the immediate past. The actual correlation between present success and the immediate past is moderate. But without much else to go on, early predictions are highly correlated.

But the original point was that you can't use the last several years of underachieving to unequivocally say that Miami isn't going to break through in any given year. Eventually Miami is going to make it through and the variables that held them back the last several years have largely changed. By the end of the season, they were a different team. If they find a QB, they will be VERY good.