My understanding is that 0.500 is OK. But there is an interesting ...
scenario for teams that enter their conference tournament at 0.500 like we are.
If the game with NC State goes to penalty kicks, the result will be recorded as a tie regardless of who wins in PK's. With the next game being against a powerhouse Wake Forest team (i.e. it's a likely loss for us), we would have a very strong incentive to lose in PK's to NC State, thus preserving our 0.500 record. If we were to win in PK's, but then lose to Wake, we would fall below 0.500 and be out of the NCAA tournament.
BC faced this exact situation last year in the ACC tournament as they were at 0.500 when they played us in the first round with # 1 UNC waiting next in round two. BC beat us in PK's, but they upset UNC in the next round before losing to Clemson to keep their record at 0.500 (and they made it to the NCAA tournament).
Again, I need to point out that I'm not 100% certain that the criteria is the same as last year.