Nope - take the 80% shot at first down, then you have four shots at endzone
Let's say there is an 80% chance of getting the first if you run a short yardage play, and that there is a 20% chance of completing that long pass in the endzone. By throwing on fourth, you have a 20% chance of winning the game. By going for the first down, you have an 80% x (whatever odds you get by four 20% chances).
Rough math but you get the idea.
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In response to this post by Planner_Hokie)
Posted: 11/14/2017 at 10:27AM