You're looking at the yield spread between 10-year Treasury bonds, and 2-year. As you can see, when the spread inverts, an economic recession of varying length and magnitude follows. However you should also take note that in most cases the last few decades, it's still 2+ years between the time when it first inverts, and when the recession begins. In fact the recession often doesn't begin until after it's already become positive again. So what I'm saying is if there's 1 single metric to maybe care about, it's this one. As you can see, it's been trending down, and it's probably going to invert sometime this year, or maybe next. That might not be the time to take on a high amount of illiquid risk (e.g. a 2nd house) unless you're sure of the strength of your positioning.