Courtesy of Le Sewer:


When is a 16-seed upset of a 1-seed not like a 16 over a 1?

When it’s more like a 15 over a 2 (or 3).

Two important factors when looking at the upset capability of 15’s and 16’s in the NCAAT are (1) 3-point shooting ability/volume and (2) interior player size.

15- and 16-seeds have the 3-point shot as the great equalizer – getting hot from 3 and shooting a lot of 3’s is a proven formula for springing big upsets.

Additionally, many 15- and 16-seeds don’t have big men (6-8+) who play much, making them vulnerable on the interior to 1- and 2-seeds.

Of the four 16-seed play-in teams, three were very weak – having 15-19 regular season losses and RPI’s of 222-279. The fourth, Radford, had (1) 12 regular season losses, (2) played one big who was 6-8 (or taller) regularly (300+ minutes on the season), and (3) made 7.7 3FGs per game … not the profile of a team likely to upset a 1- or 2-seed.

The two higher-rated 16-seeds (avoiding the play-in games) and the four 15-seeds had the following profiles:
RPI
- # of bigs who played 300+ minutes/#of bigs who played 10+ minutes in the first NCAAT game
- 3FG%
- made 3FGs per game (as of Selection Sunday)

UMBC (16) -------– 111, 4/2, 38.7, 10.2
Penn (16) -–-------- 115, 2/2, 34.7, 8.5
Lipscomb (15) –--- 101, 1/1, 33.1, 8.1
Iona (15) ----------– 107, 1/1, 38.8, 9.7
Ga. State (15) ----- 120, 2/1, 38.6, 9.0
CS-Fullerton (15) - 131, 1/1, 33.8, 5.3
UMBC’s 10.2 made 3FGs per game was 5th most of the 68 teams in the NCAAT, behind only Villanova (11.4), 12-seeds Davidson (10.7) and South Dakota State (10.6) who lost by 5 and 8 points to 5-seeds Kentucky and Ohio State respectively, and 8-seed Creighton (10.4).

UMBC’s 3FG% was 15th out of 68 teams in the NCAAT, with only 5 of those teams seeded below 7 (two 11’s, two 12’s and Iona at 15).

UMBC, with better (1) RPI, (2) interior player size, and (3) higher percentage/more frequent 3-point shooting probably should have been a 15-seed above Ga. State and CS-Fullerton, and perhaps also should have been above Lipscomb.

As for UVA, De’Andre Hunter presumably broke his wrist on Friday night of the ACCT prior to Selection Sunday. The announcement that Hunter would not play in the NCAAT came Tuesday afternoon (following Selection Sunday). Had the NCAAT Selection Committee known Hunter was out, would/should UVA have been a 1-seed?

UVA likely would have lost to Duke at Cameron in January without Hunter:

(1) Hunter had 12 points, 4 rebounds, and 2 assists in 24 minutes while busting the Duke zone from the free throw line on offense in the 2-point victory. Other big games for Hunter included:
(2) UNC - 10 points and 7 boards in 18 minutes in a 12-point victory
(3) Syracuse - 15 points, 2 rebounds, 2 blocks, and 2 steals in 27 minutes in a 7-point win in JPJ
(4) at Syracuse - 15 points, 3 boards, and 6 assists in 28 minutes in a 15-point win in the Carrier Dome
(5) at GT - 17 points and 7 rebounds in in 28 minutes in a 16-point win at GT
(6) at Wake Forest - 16 points and 5 rebounds in 22 minutes in a 5-point win
(7) at Miami – 22 points, 3 rebounds, a block, and a steal in 30 minutes in the 9-point win
(8) at Louisville – the game winning 3-pointer in the final second
(9) Notre Dame (Senior Day) – 10 points, 6 boards, 2 assists, a block and a steal in 25 minutes in a 5 point win
(10) Clemson (ACCT game in which Hunter broke his wrist in the first half, and just ‘walked it off’) – 9 points, 4 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 steal, and 1 block in 20 minutes in the 6 point win
(11) UNC (ACCT Championship) - 10 points and 4 boards (with a broken wrist) in 18 minutes in the 8-point win

Without De’Andre Hunter, UVA may have been in the ball park of 10-8 in the ACC, but likely would have been no better than 12-6 (rather than 17-1) and no better than 26-7 overall (AP #7 to #12)

UVA would not have won the ACC Tournament without Hunter.

UVA without Hunter, and especially with the loss coming with no chance to play a game without him before the NCAAT opener, probably should/would have been downgraded from a 1-seed had the NCAAT Committee known he would not play and that UVA was probably fielding the equivalent of a 2- or 3-seed squad.

The upset of UVA by UMBC was a huge shocker in any event, and the final margin of 20 points made it especially ugly, but the upset was really was more like a 15-seed beating a 2 or 3-seed, akin to Lehigh over Duke in 2012.

A 16 over a 1 is the Holy Grail for sportswriters, so don't expect qualifiers when this story is told, and re-told ...