Let's say CMY "overachieves" this year and squeaks into the tourney, losing in the first round. Coach of the Year...picked in the cellar and way overachieved.

Next year, the whole team returns and adds some highly-touted recruits. We get projected as a Sweet 16 team and that's exactly what we achieve.

Was CMY really a better coach the first year than the second?

Who's to say "overachieving" isn't the product of crappy prognostication instead of "great coaching"??