We got a 5 seed in 2007 with no good non-conference wins and losses to Marshall, WMU, GW, and somebody else I'm forgetting off the top of my head. That was almost entirely because of the sweep of UNC, of course, and finishing 3rd in a 12 team ACC.

The point is this: nobody has any idea how our team is going to be perceived this year, and it's that perception that will be the dominant factor in whether or not we make the tournament. If people perceive us as being a bubble team that doesn't do anything particularly interesting in Jan/Feb then they will look at our non-conference schedule to justify excluding us even if we go, say, 21-11 (10-8). If we win a few games against UNC, Duke, UVa, Syracuse, and Louisville and look good doing it and everyone decides we are a tournament caliber team, then our non-conference schedule will be forgotten even if we go, like, 19-12 (9-9). People will choose the narrative that matches their opinion of our team.

I will say that it's a great sign that the media consensus right now seems to be settling on a narrative that this is a tournament caliber team. That means that, for as long as possible, they will continue to look for facts that support that narrative and ignore facts that contradict it. We don't necessarily have to beat Michigan, we just have to look like we could beat Michigan. And then we have to run the table on the rest of the non-conference schedule. At that point, it will be up to us to take advantage of the opportunities presented by the ACC slate.
[Post edited by Gobbler-100 at 11/28/2016 1:16PM]