I say he's gone even if UNC escapes any real sanctions. He grew up in College Station. He'll get a raise, more money for assistants, a higher profile, and a fan base who actually care about football. Saban remains the biggest downside of a move to the SEC, much less the SEC west.

The flip side is he could stay in the "safe" ACC coastal for a long time (as many Heels cite when any rumors come up) UNC tanks a few seasons, and his stock goes down. I say he leaves whenever Sumlin exits.