The recent past is a huge factor in the prediction of near future events, and we are doing that with polling. We aren't looking at Miami from 2010 or even 2015 (the past), but looking at Miami in 2016 for 2017 (near past.)

If a person jumps off of a cliff of 100 feet (the near past) what do you think the future holds? Before one thinks of death (which is a huge possibility-near future) there is the option of...a parachute where a person lands safely or jumps into water where it will hurt, but he will likely live (near future). You can see here that before one thinks of death, there are a couple of other options-outcomes (near future) but there aren't very many, and the near past is certainly impacting all three outcomes above (near future).

This doesn't hold true for all events in life of course, especially a 13 or so long college football season, but..the recent past certainly plays a big part in the near future.
[Post edited by OakIslandNCHokie at 08/16/2017 8:36PM]