Hi Everyone:

This is the first time I've posted here even though I've been a subscriber on and off for many years. I also have a BS and MS degrees in Math both from Va Tech and have authored many books on the subject of gambling. So I know what I'm talking about and here's my first post.

One thing that most people don’t understand is that when an opponent starts from deep in their own territory it’s the equivalent of giving them a couple of negative points. To make this clear consider the following, if you have first and goal on the opponent’s 1 yard line, that’s roughly the same as 6.5 points since you’re so sure to score. But if you have first and 10 on your own 1 yard line, that may be roughly equivalent to negative 2 points since so many things can go wrong (including not making a first down and giving your opponent good field position after a punt).

Once you understand that this is the correct way to look at these decisions, it should be apparent that Coach Fuente’s decision to go for it on fourth down when deep in GA Tech territory was absolutely correct. In fact, if I was to be critical of him, my criticism would be that the offense needs to go for it on fourth down even more. But based on the last two games, Coach Fuente is way ahead of most other head coaches.

Mason Malmuth