Does a player being 29 vs 30 make a team more or less likely to sign a guy to a longer deal for their 3rd contract, or pay them more up front? 30 seems to be a magic number as far as professional sports are concerned for long-term deals, however irrelevant it may be scientifically.

As an NFL GM, do you draft a guy that's 20 in the 2nd round, or spend a top 10 pick on the same guy a year later, knowing full well his further development that year in college will pale in comparision to how he would've progressed when football's his full time job under a professional NFL level staff.

Do you think that NFL front offices would see Tim Settle in 8 years when he's 28 and say "Man that guy has been in the league for 8 years, he probably only has 2-3 left" like they would for a guy who's 31 that came out at 23.

If it doesn't matter for longevity, it certainly matters when it comes to the optics of making a player an attractive option. Combine that with players who just want to get paid for putting it on the line and it seems like jumping ship early is a better monetary option.