confirmed Covid-19 infection.

US - 137,414 deaths out of 3,356,242 confirmed Covid-19 infections
World - 568,321 deaths out of 12,873,542

There have been more infections (untested asymptomatics and symptomatics), but your math is technically correct,as you were scaling up versus new known Covid-19 infections.

The error is in assuming that the death rate in July will be the same as it has been from March through June. The average age of those infected is lower, so they will die at a lower rate, and a large number of the most vulnerable (elderly, those with comordidities, those with high risk behavior) are already dead.

Perhaps an expert has predicted what the current and future US death rates pre-vaccine will be - I'll guess 2 to 3%.
[Post edited by Lane2020 at 07/12/2020 09:03AM]