They have to "guess" for several reasons
First elderly are the most likely to die from flu and they don't necessarily die from flu directly but from an underlying condition such as heart disease, diabetes, high blood pressure, etc. Add to the fact that your immune system does not work as well when you are 80 vs 30, death comes "easier".
Second when an elderly person dies usually from more than one disease, they don't go and test the person for multiple reasons, one the person's healthcare has to pay for it and may not even cover it, the person is dead. Most who die they don't even test when they are alive to see if it is a flu infection, just label it respiratory infection.
Third how do you define a death with multiple factors contributing to the death the person died with heart disease and respiratory infection, do you give 50% to heart disease and 50% to respiratory?
So the only thing the CDC can do is compare flu infections and deaths of people with respitory infections and say which years were worst than others and extrapolate. There are other articles that state they actually think the way underestimate global flu deaths, usually around 500K a year, and think it is more in the 750K a year, I believe it is from WHO.
So until COVID-19 hits 500K to 750K a year it is "less" lethal than flu. The problem is we don't have good tests for COVID-19 at the beginning of the outbreak so those 80% you got it and didn't have any symptoms don't get tested and don't drop the mortality rate. We have a great handle on seasonal flu because we have dealt with it for so long.
HokieForever
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In response to this post by uwhokie)
Posted: 03/26/2020 at 09:57AM