I can only bracket it. Take 2 assumptions on 1st infection here. One in

3rd week jan, one starting in early December.

Run Rzero in the wild (eg no SIP) at 2.5 or 3. Assume 5 day cycle time....punches out #infections. Longer it runs in the wild, higher the pop %. Either way, the 6 week difference in start date gets overtaken at end of series.

My wild a**, mk 1 eyeball guess is we are between 1 and 10% of pop. I hope antibody tests confirm.

If so, its only a couple turns of the crank at Rzero "in the wild" to trip the 70% number. Game over.

This world, ofc require reversal of SIP and powering through. Dicey decision with no data, yet.

In response to this post by HokieForever

Posted: 04/03/2020 at 3:04PM

BTW ive been tracking the model closely vs actual in New York. To be kind -- ColoVT82 04/03/2020 2:51PM

Which model? This is interesting. Death rate increasing though ** -- WestyHokie 04/03/2020 4:01PM

The u of Wash/IHME one, the "go to" in usa. link inside -- ColoVT82 04/03/2020 4:36PM

Cuomo is gonna KICK YOUR ASS! And don't take his boat! ** -- 48zip 04/03/2020 3:51PM

Laffs ** -- ColoVT82 04/03/2020 4:37PM

No kidding. None of the models out there, repeat none, are worth the -- 133743Hokie 04/03/2020 3:18PM

Righto. The owners need to tweak parameters. Predict msg change nxt wk ** -- ColoVT82 04/03/2020 3:28PM

Do you have any data on what herd immunity % we are currently -- HokieForever 04/03/2020 2:54PM

Some states in Europe tried that. They chose...poorly ** -- BlacksburgHokie 04/03/2020 4:15PM

Math doesnt care ** -- ColoVT82 04/03/2020 4:38PM

Wonder if that's what's happening in California? -- EDGEMAN 04/03/2020 3:11PM

Maybe due to tons and tons of peeps living in confined spaces and like -- IB4TECH 04/03/2020 3:35PM

Dunno. Test a random sample. Easy peazy. ** -- ColoVT82 04/03/2020 3:31PM

Big part of that might be as simple as subways vs cars for daily transport ** -- 81_Hokie 04/03/2020 3:31PM

Yeah would be interesting to know. ** -- HokieForever 04/03/2020 3:13PM

I can only bracket it. Take 2 assumptions on 1st infection here. One in -- ColoVT82 04/03/2020 3:04PM

No way to know since we don't know how many recovered... -- MP4VT2004 04/03/2020 3:02PM

Bigger problem...how do you go about testing majority of population... -- vthokieq 04/03/2020 3:15PM

Need a take at home kit that can be mailed... -- RUHokie 04/03/2020 6:05PM

I totally agree. -- MP4VT2004 04/03/2020 3:44PM

Get jehovah's witnesses to go door to door with test kits and literature? ** -- 81_Hokie 04/03/2020 3:32PM

I laffed, good on ya fellow survivor of 5hr calc w/dr W ** -- ColoVT82 04/03/2020 3:43PM

BUT....while drinking grain alcohol? I lived in Major Bill. Grape Soda -- 48zip 04/03/2020 3:50PM

I may or may not have done the grain infused grape concoction in trash can ** -- ColoVT82 04/03/2020 4:39PM

No I get that, I knew without antibody test no way to definitely know -- HokieForever 04/03/2020 3:07PM

I can only bracket it. Take 2 assumptions on 1st infection here. One in

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