I see this as an opportunity for the Big-12 to finally be a conference and not a collection of flies buzzing the Bevo Plop and taking orders. For anyone who has not been in a conference with Texas it is hard to understand just how they affect everything they touch. Many here are too young or too removed to recall what a backstabbing, underhanded, self-serving liar Miami was through the 1990's. But, if you do, notch that effect up 100 fold and you are getting close to Texas.

As it stands right now, none of the Big-12 remaining members have the money to buy out what is estimated to be something between 80 and 200 million before legal interactions. Also, no other conference is opening their doors to them, mostly because such things must be explored and considered and discusses for a months. There has not been enough time to do that and by the time there is, this will all be settled.

The Big-12 remaining members will stay together, end of story. They have no choice. They have no options. They have a powerful GOR.

If Texas and Oklahoma challenge that GOR in court then everyone with any sort of GOR will step into the court room behind the Big-12 and fight to save the GOR mechanic. If Texas and Oklahoma were to win, there would be no more GOR and universities would annually change conferences the way players do in the transfer portal. What a mess that would be!

So, now, the Big-12 can work on being a conference and not a collection of cornered victims.

They still have all of the recognition of a P5 conference in everything being discussed, even the CFP-12. They still have a media rights deal, although that is expected to be reduced. They have only lost Texas and Oklahoma and some media money so far.

But they can expect to gain a lot for that.

First money. The Big-12 currently gets 401 million annually for its media rights deal or 40 million per member. It is has been speculated that the figure would be cut in half with the exit of Texas and Oklahoma. Assuming the new deal is 200 million for now 8 schools that means that each member drops from 40 million per year to 25 million.

ESPN cannot cancel the media rights del but they can reduce its payment because of the change in membership or even increase it with an escalator clause if the conference expands.

So, until 2025, the current members of the Big-12 are still going to pull in something around 25 million depending on whose numbers you follow. I think it is going to be higher, but ESPN is trying to pay nothing so who can forecast that figure with any accuracy?

Then you add to this that there is going to be a HUGE payout. Right now the figures are 160 million too 400 million total. Lawyers will tear that apart but at that scale that is still a HUGE sum to be split 8 ways. Assuming the Big-12 lawyers just botch the process, assume something between 10 and 20 million per school. But, if they do well, it could be more like 40 to 50 million per school. The actual figure will be somewhere in between.

If the Big-12 can get ESPN to renew the existing reduced media tv rights deal of an estimated 200 million plus facets for new members and a CCG down the road. The Big-12 members might take a lot less. Horse trading.

Next comes power.

The Big-12 members now have an equal say in matters and can now call the shots in their own house without Texas lording over them. That has a value all its own. Better yet, until Texas and Oklahoma leave, the Big-12 can tell them to shut up and sit and the little table because Texas and Oklahoma are persona non-grata. Those will be some fun meetings.

Expansion.

Expansion has been held back by Texas every time it came up - hints of Miami keeping schools like VT out of the conference.

Expansion requires a lot of work but most of that work has been done in the last ten years with three separate committees that engaged in it for the Big-12 Dust some stuff and get to work.

BYU is a no-brainer. They simply must be in a conference in a CFP-12 world or be left out. The CFP-12 will hold a seat for Notre Dame but no one else. BYU already has a 9 million dollar per annum ESPN deal and that would fold into the Big-12 and offset the cost of bringing BYU in and paying the bills.

Cincinnati, Houston and Memphis should be contacted professional with approval from the AAC. They each pull in 8 million through the AAC ESPN deal and again, that money would merely transfer over.

Normally conference for the upcoming year is determined by June 30 of the previous year. Is it too late to have these four start in 2022? Depends on who cordial talks go and who gets paid. If we assume it is not too late, the Big-12 needs to establish a CCG for play at the end of the 2022 season. If it is too late then the new teams and the CCG do not arrive until the 2023 season and the Big-12 only has 8 members in 2022 after having 10 in 2021.

At this point the Big-12 is stable. If we assume my numbers are any where close to correct, we have 200 + 9 + 8 + 8 + 8 = 233 million divided by 12 = 19.4 million per member. Now, that is the worst case scenario because it does not add one dime to the Big-12 from the ESPN. I suspect it would come out more like 10 million per new member and the final member pay out will be an even 20 million, plus whatever they each share from a CCG, perhaps 3 to 5 million more, for a total of 23 to 25 million each. That is still well short of even the ACC's numbers but it far above what the non-P5 conferences make and that is probably about right.

The unknown is the medium term future, what happens after 2025?

The CFP-12 is coming in some form and now there seems to be a heavy hand on capping conference slots. This is good because it means more access for anyone not calling the SEC home.

The Big-12 at this point in my projection still has 12 members, a media deal, a CCG and control over its own house for the first time in ever. The writing is on the wall, every conference must be a 16 team super conference. I am one of those that believes we do not explode into mega 20 to 30 team unions.

So the Big-12 needs to add 13 through 16 the year after they add 9 through 12. A lot of work. The simple route is just go back to the AAC and offer UCF, USF, SMU and Boise State. But, there is enough rumor that the Pac-12 may go through some upheaval so who knows what will shake out. If that happens, options improve with the likes of Arizona and Arizona State. But, if not the four I mentioned all work well enough to get the Big-12 to super conference level and rename itself the Big-16.

I do not see the future of the Big-12 as dark and foreboding, I think it is an exciting time and full of opportunity.