Usually, if you exercise it, the tradeoff is that it permanently increases their commission and possibly it doesn't gain quite the same way that it used to if the market takes a loss.

I'm not saying it's not still a good deal if you time it right - just make sure that you read the fine print. Obviously, if you exercise it in early 2008, you're doing great, but if you exercise it in early 2006 (when there were lots of warning signs, but the stock market was going to still add 50% to its value before falling), then it's not going to work out as great.

It's hard to say where we are in the cycle because we're in something of uncharted territory. The market is going to fall, but is it going to fall this year or is it going to fall several years down the road?

Heck, people in 2012 were saying that it was going to pull back again and it's doubled since then.