If there are no upsets (according to seeds) and no bonus points awarded, the team scores would be:

VT 77.5
NCSU 69.5
UNC 46
Pitt 42.5
UVA 36.5
Duke 28

So it's pretty close, but we are slight favorites over NCSU. One or two upsets either way make a huge difference.

I'm not going to attempt to predict bonus points. That said, you get 2 points for winning by fall (or forfeit), 1.5 for each tech fall, and 1 for a major decision. You'd expect the scores to be a bit higher.

There are "advancement" points for winning matches prior to the final "placement" match.

1st round: 1 point for winning the 3-6 or 4-5 match
1st round: 1 point for the bye for the 1 and 2 seeds, but only if they win the semifinals
2nd round: 1 point for winning the semi-finals
3rd round: 0.5 points for winning the consolation semis (1st round loser vs. 2nd round loser)
4th round (3rd place match): no points awarded
4th round (5th place match, only at 184 for NCAA qualification): no points awarded
5th round (1st place match): no points awarded

I think you also get 0.5 points if you lose in the 1st round and win in the 3rd round, because you got a bye in the second round. (In an 8-team tournament, the 5 and 6 seeds would be expected to lose in the first round but eliminate the also-losing 8 and 7 seeds in the second round.) But in a no-upsets tournament, the 5 and 6 seeds lose both of their matches.

Finally, the lion's share of the points are for "placement":

1st place: 10 points
2nd place: 7 points
3rd place: 4 points
4th place: 2 points
5th and 6th place: participation ribbon

If there are no upsets, 1st through 4th place will get 12, 9, 5.5, and 3.5 advancement and placement points. 5th and 6th place get nothing.

[Post edited by nvpbrown at 03/05/2019 7:11PM]