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MilwaukeeHokie

Joined: 09/27/1999 Posts: 1795
Likes: 225


A vaccine or at least treatment can be reasonably expected in 12 to 18


months. Globally it will take 2 or 3 years to ramp up and immunize/treat but the "panic" phase of selling seems almost over as we are reaching below book value (not intangible Tech stock type book value but real asset value) for many companies and earnings ratios are getting insane on some stocks. IMO we will see volatility but the underlying economy is still good if the virus is managed. I say managed not gone. Once the volatility/panic selling dissipates we will stabilize at the bottom + or -10 to 20% and then start a creep up that will have some big spikes. The market will start pricing in a positive virus free future before that actually happens creating the big up spikes. Like I said, I am willing to accept a 10 or 20% loss to realize a 50% gain but I can't predict the bottom but I know an upside is in the future if a cure/treatment can be found which I believe will happen quickly (months not years in terms of the initial stock market bumps).
My two cents having learned some lessons in the last recession and regretted not buying earlier in many cases and accepting I can't predict the bottom bottom but I can assess value.

(In response to this post by HokieSignGuy)

Posted: 03/19/2020 at 10:00AM



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