So health 'experts' say we have a minimum of 15% of the US population that have recovered from the virus and have at least some level of protection - I recognize that some folks dispute how much protection they have but early evidence seems to show that, especially in younger folks, even if the volume of antibodies decreases after 3 months, the body is showing the ability to combat the virus effectively. So, for the sake of simplicity, let's say that we have 15% already covered. I, for one, believe the number is much higher, probably closer to 25% since so many are asymptomatic.

The current plan, which seems feasible, is to have 20,000,000 vaccinated in December, another 20,000,000 vaccinated in January, 20,000,000 in February, and 50,000,000 vaccinated in March when at least three different vaccines should be available. At that point ALL vulnerable folks who want the vaccine will have had the opportunity. Furthermore, right now we have about 100,000 new cases per day - I divide by 2 because many of these are people trying to get a negative test so they aren't really new cases. So let's say, due to the vaccine, we average 50,000 new cases per day through March. That is almost another 6,000,000 people with protection from the virus.

The end result is that by the end of March, we should have right around 50% of the population protected and estimates are somewhere between 50,000,000 - 70,000,000 vaccinations per month in April - June which covers the remaining 50% ... except for those who refuse to take it and that is their choice.

To those that say those vaccination numbers are not possible, I say this. We are now doing over 2,000,000 tests per day and the number continues to grow. It is more than 10 times the number of tests we were doing in April and May so we can scale things very, very rapidly.

What does all this mean? To me it means that we should have baseball and concerts this summer and full football stadiums next fall. Some may still not feel comfortable attending and that is fine but if you follow the science (and the math) we are going to be done with this thing by the end of spring.