If the Big-12 had the Texas you and others claim it does, Houston would be a member. Houston may become a member but it will be a situation where it is part of a deal that brings in a #11 that everyone besides Texas desires, meaning someone not under the Texas thumb.

Few schools qualify in that regard and all of them would be from another P5 conference if there is going to be any consensus. That makes for a short list, because the G5 schools have been debated to death and it went no where. They do not even get in based as an add on. Only Houston gets any traction because Texas wants them.

That leaves adding a P5 school unhappy with its past and current life and believing that its future is no better. That makes an even shorter list. The big difference is going to be money. It is going to be the factor that makes institutions move or not move. The Big-12 is in the upper league with the SEC and Big Ten for pay out. The ACC and the Pac-12 are way down the list in that area.

If the new contract keeps the Big-12 at its current level or better yet improves as have the renegotiated contracts with the Big Ten and SEC, then schools in ACC and Pac-12 may take a second look. It may still not be enough to get any of them to walk, but it is more than enough to keep the Big-12 schools from walking and that is the basis of my 'rock solid' stamp.

No school in the Big-12 is looking around and they are certainly not looking at the Pac-12 or ACC. Neither the SEC or the Big Ten is looking to add any one so that is pretty much a dead end before it could be considered. If the truth were learned, both of those conferences would like to drop a school or two. Maryland, Rutgers and Nebraska have probably not turned into 'winners' in the Big Ten and Missouri and Arkansas are about the same in the SEC. There could be a school in that mix that might want to jump into the Big-12 with Houston in the next round, but if not. The Big-12 is fine where it is and that leads back to being rock solid.

It is not much fun to talk about in the off season, but it is the reality of the landscape.