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To date, the IHME model is pretty close although a little low ....

related to daily deaths, about 10 to 12 percent low using the dashed line for comparison, but obviously within the shaded range. I have been tracking the daily death rate since the model rolled out which initially predicted about 93K deaths for the U.S.
Model: https://covid19.healthdata.org/

For example, see below:

April 1st - projected about 800 deaths, actual was 900.
April 2nd - projected about 1036, actual was 1,169
April 3rd - projected about 1194, actual was 1,344

They are in the process of updating the model so we shall see what it says.They promised an update yesterday but didn't happen, so the latest update is April 1st.

(In response to this post by ColoVT82)

Posted: 04/05/2020 at 3:14PM

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Current Thread:

The model continues to unimpress. tried to add ny as update. Goofed -- ColoVT82 04/05/2020 2:09PM

Are you looking at what little testing data is being reported? -- Baltimore Hokie 04/05/2020 5:45PM

I see 1.7M tests reported thru today on link. Btw, good site ** -- ColoVT82 04/05/2020 6:04PM

Agree -- Teewinot 04/05/2020 3:34PM

To date, the IHME model is pretty close although a little low .... -- hokietony 04/05/2020 3:14PM

Yup. Deaths are a lagging indicator. ** -- ColoVT82 04/05/2020 3:19PM

But they are the only true indicator .... -- hokietony 04/05/2020 3:57PM

Heres ny -- ColoVT82 04/05/2020 3:08PM

You have posted a lot on this subject, but I have no idea what you are -- VTBB 04/05/2020 2:36PM

Yeah I find his posts extremely cryptic and confusing as well. ** -- AbsolutVT03 04/05/2020 3:07PM

Predictions? Ive stated b4. Its just math until fundamental condn changes -- ColoVT82 04/05/2020 2:54PM

Please don't feed the animals ** -- Rodman6565 04/05/2020 3:10PM

Nothing is written in stone yet but from what I’ve seen so far, it sounds -- Hoakie82 04/05/2020 2:24PM

I think you’re missing the point on flattening the curve. It’s not just -- AbsolutVT03 04/05/2020 3:06PM

Good points but I’ve heard numerous times there’s a limit on ventilators & -- Hoakie82 04/05/2020 3:13PM

Is this your work or others? -- 48zip 04/05/2020 2:19PM

Right off the site. And i cross correlate w/ny and cuomos press conf data ** -- ColoVT82 04/05/2020 2:48PM

Cuomo put his last shipment of ventilators in a warehouse. -- EDGEMAN 04/05/2020 2:37PM

Better to be overprepared than underprepared but it definitely seems like -- vt90 04/05/2020 2:58PM

Betting on the future. Hogging those needed by others. Scumbag. ** -- AZHokie59 04/05/2020 2:50PM

The Navy hospital is supposed to be for non COVID-19 patients unless that -- Hoakie82 04/05/2020 2:28PM

Correct, but only 25 non-COVID-19 patients in the hospital? No chance. ** -- 48zip 04/05/2020 2:31PM

The Navy made it extremely difficult to gain admission. One of -- Femoyer Hokie 04/05/2020 2:54PM

It would seem like the 15 minute test would be appropriate here, for all. -- 48zip 04/05/2020 3:19PM

Sorry but I’m not following you. ** -- Hoakie82 04/05/2020 2:38PM

As of Friday night there were only 25 patients in the hospital ship. -- 48zip 04/05/2020 3:20PM

Ok, that works. I didn’t know what you were talking about or that there was -- Hoakie82 04/05/2020 6:30PM

App[arently there were some CAVID placed there by accident. My question is -- 48zip 04/06/2020 08:37AM