I'm not saying your wrong, I just can't wrap my head around it. It seems like our peak would be right now (roughly). I can't figure out why it would be 3-5 weeks from now.

The only thing I can think of that supports that timeline is we increased saturation over the last couple of weeks before distancing (which makes sense). Now we have more carriers, many of whom are asymptomatic, and many of them are isolating or distancing to varying degrees. They go home and infect the people they live with, therefore enlarging the numbers all at one time like the wave you mentioned. But, in that scenario, the peak would happen in roughly 1-2 weeks, not 5 like most "experts" are calling for.

Article after article I read say April will be worse than March, and May even worse. Maybe they aren't referring to new cases specifically, but rather the cumulative effect of having the most people infected at one time with a maximum number of people in hospitals occupying beds, docs and equipment.

Appreciate all the insight!