Covid. But if you look at the macro-level, the excess deaths numbers are right in line with reported Covid deaths.

My real question will take several months to answer. We don't really know how many Covid deaths were otherwise healthy people vs. people who weren't long for this world anyway. Basically, are the 300k excess deaths people who wouldn't have otherwise died anytime soon, or was it mostly people who were probably going to die before the end of 2021 anyway. If the latter, then we should see a big drop in excess deaths through next year since most of the 2021 deaths have already died. Or maybe Covid really did kill that many people by itself. Only time will tell.