And how fast they want to get there. If Texas and Oklahoma get tied up and can't get into the SEC until 2024 or 2025, then that'll slow things down for future expansions. I think the plan for the SEC right now is to get Texas and Oklahoma, and then renegotiate their media contracts. Then sit back for another 4 to 6 years as the money comes rolling in. That would get us to around the 2030 mark when the ACC GoR has fewer years in front of it than it does behind and ACC schools become much more attractive targets at the same time the SEC is ready to add more schools to renegotiate for even more money.

So then they need to add at least two (possibly more) schools. If they just add two more schools it would probably be either Florida State and Clemson if they think they need football brands to drive revenue higher, or two more adjacent, large-population states for their footprint (North Carolina and Virginia) if they think adding states/subscribers to the footprint would drive revenue higher.

In Virginia there are obviously two possibilities, either Virginia Tech or UVA. My gut tells me the SEC would probably take Virginia Tech over UVA for a variety of reasons. But I think the B1G will take UVA in a heartbeat but wouldn't consider Virginia Tech because of their ridiculous AAU snobiness. So like countless others on this board have predicted, I think Tech to the SEC and UVA to the B1G is the most likely outcome.

But for North Carolina schools the calculations are more complicated. Out of the 3 potential schools in North Carolina, I think the SEC would most want UNC, with NC State a consolation prize, and Duke the distant third place. I think the only way the SEC would ever take Duke is as a package deal with UNC. They also might consider taking UNC and NC State together as a package deal if UNC made that a condition for political reasons. But no way they would ever take all three.

My best guess is probably Duke and UNC to the B1G and NC State to the SEC as many others have predicted. But personally I'd much rather UNC and NC State go to the SEC as a package deal and kick Duke off packing to the B1G.

If SEC were to eventually take Florida State, Clemson, UNC, NC State, and Virginia Tech they would be at 21 schools, an odd number, so they gotta add at least one more....Notre Dame??? I think Notre Dame fans, though they would hate losing their precious independence, deep down they would get a certain amount of pleasure sticking it to the B1G one last time in epic fashion by joining the SEC. But you'd have to ask Goldendomer about that.












[Post edited by tarheelblue at 08/10/2021 11:37PM]