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Beerman

Joined: 08/14/1998 Posts: 15797
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True


Lack of capacity severely limited early testing. That's indisputable.

Current testing, while much wider in scope than three months ago, isn't covering anywhere near the entire population of the nation. Confirmed positive cases are way low compared to unconfirmed and largely asymptomatic cases. How low is up to which model you choose to believe, the 6-24 times WAG mentioned elsewhere in this thread is as good a guess as any.

A 0.68% fatality rate, if we achieved 100% infection rate, would mean 2.2M dead Americans. We won't reach that, of course. That's absurd.

If we use the generally accepted 60-70% infection rate for herd immunity, you're still in 1.5M range.

If we use the fordham accepted 20% infection rate for herd immunity (on the basis of the unproven assumption that half of humanity is naturally immune) we're down to a "mere" 450,000 dead.

(In response to this post by GreenvilleVT)

Posted: 07/22/2020 at 10:17AM


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Current Thread:
 
  Covid fatality rate -- GreenvilleVT 07/22/2020 09:37AM
  We will never know how many people got infected nor how many died -- fordham 07/22/2020 2:21PM
  Thanks for the research. ** -- ColoVT82 07/22/2020 2:09PM
  FYI a .68% fatality rate across the 228 million people that would need to -- AbsolutVT03 07/22/2020 12:29PM
  Except we all know the fatality rate is still too high as alot -- fordham 07/22/2020 3:51PM
  Incorrect. ** -- AbsolutVT03 07/22/2020 4:00PM
  Article name? ** -- HealthHokie 07/22/2020 12:05PM
  How Deadly is Covid-19? Researchers are getting closer to an answer. -- GreenvilleVT 07/22/2020 12:19PM
  Got it.Thx ** -- HealthHokie 07/22/2020 12:59PM
  IMHO, the most telling part of that -- RTFC 07/22/2020 11:25AM
  Greenville...what would be your rough guess for fatality rate for those -- Tuckahokie 07/22/2020 10:41AM
  Better question... what % of the US population falls into one or more of -- AbsolutVT03 07/22/2020 12:22PM
  Something well over 3/4 of Americans have a preexisting condition including -- 81_Hokie 07/22/2020 2:08PM
  42.4% of US adults are medically obese -- Beerman 07/22/2020 1:43PM
  There is a big difference between someone carrying 10-15 pounds too much -- fordham 07/22/2020 5:10PM
  I'm sure there is -- Beerman 07/22/2020 5:34PM
  Really low. Many of the fatalities in the early months -- GreenvilleVT 07/22/2020 10:58AM
  ^^^ Yep, problem with US is usually have 1 or more, very unhealthy -- HokieForever 07/22/2020 11:00AM
  More than half of everyone over age 55 has high blood pressure... -- Beerman 07/22/2020 11:59AM
  I saw a funny tweet the other day...something along the lines of... -- vthokieq 07/22/2020 11:06AM
  You can't spread obesity or diabetes ** -- VTSnake 07/22/2020 11:35AM
  Like a cold no...but we've had this discussion here (not you and I per se). -- vthokieq 07/22/2020 11:41AM
  If a child is obese due to negligence of the parent, it is child abuse -- VTSnake 07/22/2020 2:55PM
  I don't think it is said to undermine anything. It's said to point out the -- AbsolutVT03 07/22/2020 12:33PM
  It's completely dismissive...to say otherwise is disingenuous. -- vthokieq 07/22/2020 12:36PM
  I just explained why it's not. Your post is in a thread about COVID19 and -- AbsolutVT03 07/22/2020 12:42PM
  And I also explained to you. And here we are. -- vthokieq 07/22/2020 12:43PM
  No "think" to it. Obesity is not contagious... full stop. That's simply a -- AbsolutVT03 07/22/2020 12:52PM
  Read the thread! -- vthokieq 07/22/2020 12:57PM
  I did read the thread. It's not contagious. Period. You were the one who -- AbsolutVT03 07/22/2020 3:21PM
  1 of my children is obese, as a child he never had an off button with food. -- HortHokie 07/22/2020 12:17PM
  I don’t think there is any doubt there is a.... -- vthokieq 07/22/2020 12:19PM
  USA is paying a big price for ignoring our collective health... -- mancunian 07/22/2020 11:05AM
  Not Greenville, but from what I've read, it's practically zero. -- Hokie CPA 07/22/2020 10:46AM
  Its going to end up being like the common cold -- HokieForever 07/22/2020 09:54AM
  Maybe not -- No Clue 07/22/2020 10:21AM
  Aware of the evidence giving my opinion ** -- HokieForever 07/22/2020 10:25AM
  I think that is probably true. But then why are the + rates so low -- LaneRat 07/22/2020 09:50AM
  I think a lot of early cases were not tested due to -- GreenvilleVT 07/22/2020 09:57AM
  Honestly, I'm not so concerned about the cases so much as hospitalizations -- Hokie CPA 07/22/2020 10:25AM
  True -- Beerman 07/22/2020 10:17AM
  Sound opinion ** -- HokieForever 07/22/2020 10:07AM

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