You are correct there is a certain amount of assumption and supposition but, I do not believe it to be as large as you seem to. The primary piece of the puzzle is the Big 12. If they continue to exist then there is a lot of assumption and supposition in my remaining points, however, the consensus that the Big 12 is "circling the drain" so to speak seems pretty strong.

From there the Power 4 is not a large reach and the GOR and structures of the other potential Power 4 conferences does not make it a very big assumption to assume that remaining P4 expansion will be driven by picking up the Big 12 leftovers and potentially some smaller FBS schools as opposed to existing P4 conference members switching addresses. The follow on question to be answered is what is the magic number in the P4? 4 16 team conferences? 4 18 team conferences? 4 20 team conferences? Do the 4 have to have an equal number of total members or could it vary between say 16 and 20? With 4 conferences and using the 16 to 20 range that means you have between 64 and 80 Power conference programs. Is that number inclusive enough? Does it create other legislative/regulatory hurdles because someone is left out? Still have to deal with one or more "high profile" independents"?

Outside of Texas, Oklahoma and any schools riding their coattails there is not a single remaining program that delivers a geographic footprint akin to what the Big 10 perceived Maryland and Rutgers to provide and, truth be told, they probably do not provide a footprint that would increase the value of any existing TV pact. Therefore, the only way to potentially ring additional value from expansion members is if they upgrade the competitive content of available inventory(I.e., select the strongest programs available).